Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
Southeastern Conference · Colonial Life Arena · January 23, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread FLA -10.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money SC +500 / FLA -800
Model Predictions
Spread Total SC win
Actual FLA +1 139 Lost
Massey FLA -12.8 (+11.8) — —
Massey Totals — 143.0 (-4.0) —
Bradley-Terry — — 13% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 4% ✓
Baseline Plus ML FLA -10.5 (+9.5) 142.7 (-3.7) 18% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ FLA -10.5 (+9.5) 141.6 (-2.6) 19% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML FLA -10.8 (+9.8) 142.1 (-3.1) 16% ✓
Baseline ML FLA -10.6 (+9.6) 141.4 (-2.4) 18% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 18, 2026 FLA 76 – 62 SC
Jan 29, 2026 FLA 95 – 48 SC
Feb 16, 2025 FLA 88 – 67 SC
Mar 2, 2024 SC 82 – 76 FLA
Jan 26, 2023 FLA 81 – 60 SC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SC FLA
Overall 12-20 36-4
Conference 2-16 14-4
Home 10-8 15-1
Away 1-10 7-3
Neutral 1-2 14-0
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L3 W12
Avg Pts For 69.8 84.8
Avg Pts Against 71.4 69.6
Massey 5.9 (#89) 22.2 (#5)
Bradley-Terry 1.16 (#83) 3.72 (#7)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.54 (#81) 5.40 (#4)
RPI 0.549 (#86) 0.638 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors SC FLA
FG% 44.0% 46.9%
3PT% 33.5% 34.3%
REB / G 35.8 45.3
OREB / G 10.2 15.2
AST / TO 1.07 1.42
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 54.1%
TOV% 18.3% 15.3%
ORB% 30.6% 40.8%
FT Rate 30.9% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 42.5%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 17.6%
DRB% 72.5% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.6% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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