← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

37–12 on winners spread MAE 9.5 49 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Xavier @ UConn	+12.1	146.7	86%	89–94	✓
Memphis @ Virginia	-2.6	131.3	36%	64–62	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UNC Wilmington	+4.2	139.6	68%	66–79	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University	+0.6	138.4	49%	80–72	✗
Murray State @ Indiana State	-2.0	151.1	44%	74–84	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ South Florida	+5.9	139.9	72%	77–69	✗
Manhattan @ Wagner	+2.7	128.9	57%	80–66	✗
Davidson @ Temple	+3.0	146.9	64%	61–62	✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairfield	-5.3	135.0	31%	64–63	✓
Austin Peay @ Ohio	+6.7	135.9	73%	58–78	✓
Miami (OH) @ Vermont	+1.3	131.4	53%	67–75	✓
Elon @ East Tennessee State	+2.1	137.5	55%	58–84	✓
Longwood @ Campbell	+2.9	138.9	60%	77–55	✗
Richmond @ William & Mary	+4.5	151.9	70%	87–93	✓
Northeastern @ Massachusetts	-2.1	146.5	43%	72–77	✗
Lafayette @ George Washington	+8.5	140.8	79%	62–82	✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State	+8.1	140.4	81%	80–70	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+5.3	136.1	72%	60–73	✓
Mercer @ Queens University	+2.2	153.0	59%	66–73	✓
American University @ Saint Joseph's	+10.0	141.5	82%	57–84	✓
Alabama A&M @ UAB	+16.5	154.3	89%	67–96	✓
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+4.8	151.5	71%	73–78	✓
UMBC @ Georgia Tech	+9.4	149.0	82%	82–91	✓
Toledo @ Houston	+23.0	144.4	91%	49–78	✓
The Citadel @ Vanderbilt	+22.8	147.7	91%	53–105	✓
Evansville @ UT Arlington	+9.0	146.4	79%	54–80	✓
San Francisco @ Bradley	+3.8	141.3	63%	64–66	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas	+23.8	127.6	90%	42–83	✓
Northern Illinois @ Illinois State	+16.7	146.1	89%	60–81	✓
Wofford @ Saint Louis	+2.8	144.1	62%	74–71	✗
Tarleton State @ Oklahoma State	+15.6	138.4	89%	61–66	✓
App State @ Louisiana	-4.0	132.8	32%	62–68	✗
Canisius @ Loyola Chicago	+17.2	143.1	91%	60–72	✓
Alabama @ North Dakota	-10.9	164.7	16%	97–90	✓
Butler @ Marquette	+13.7	146.0	88%	70–80	✓
Nicholls @ Gonzaga	+24.9	150.6	91%	72–102	✓
Michigan @ Oklahoma	+1.8	146.6	59%	86–87	✓
Samford @ Arizona	+13.4	162.7	83%	64–96	✓
Utah Valley @ Idaho State	+2.9	139.2	66%	70–56	✗
Idaho @ UC Davis	+8.1	140.7	79%	66–74	✓
VCU @ New Mexico	+2.9	147.7	62%	71–78	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount	-1.6	134.7	43%	58–60	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Portland	-3.9	144.0	36%	81–64	✓
Cal State Northridge @ USC	+4.3	145.8	67%	69–90	✓
Montana State @ UC Riverside	+3.0	142.3	67%	80–83	✓
Portland State @ Pacific	+4.7	143.9	67%	81–75	✗
Kennesaw State @ Santa Clara	+10.9	147.6	82%	74–94	✓
Washington State @ Washington	+0.2	144.2	51%	73–89	✓
Alabama State @ Norfolk State	+4.3	145.9	67%	54–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.