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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
38–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Carolina
@
Tennessee
|
+25.6 | 137.2 | 91% | 36–84 | ✓ |
George Mason
@
Duke
|
+18.7 | 133.5 | 89% | 47–68 | ✓ |
Florida
@
North Carolina
|
-3.7 | 159.5 | 37% | 90–84 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Ole Miss
|
+20.1 | 144.9 | 90% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Oakland
|
-11.9 | 132.8 | 17% | 77–58 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Dayton
|
+14.0 | 143.1 | 88% | 65–66 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
South Carolina
|
-0.4 | 133.4 | 41% | 88–91 | ✗ |
Gardner-Webb
@
Georgia Southern
|
+2.7 | 147.9 | 61% | 81–86 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Robert Morris
|
+4.6 | 132.7 | 67% | 67–68 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Stony Brook
|
-0.4 | 136.0 | 44% | 68–66 | ✓ |
Coastal Carolina
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-1.1 | 142.1 | 44% | 73–68 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
East Carolina
|
+5.1 | 138.1 | 69% | 64–75 | ✓ |
West Georgia
@
Charlotte
|
+10.1 | 139.0 | 82% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Quinnipiac
|
+3.8 | 139.4 | 68% | 70–69 | ✗ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Siena
|
-7.0 | 128.5 | 23% | 65–48 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Florida State
|
+14.6 | 152.9 | 88% | 64–82 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Wake Forest
|
+3.5 | 130.9 | 65% | 58–75 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Mississippi State
|
+14.8 | 145.9 | 87% | 59–83 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Wichita State
|
+11.8 | 143.7 | 86% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Villanova
|
+13.1 | 133.1 | 87% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Missouri
|
+16.5 | 150.6 | 89% | 72–83 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Maryland
|
+24.3 | 147.5 | 91% | 57–111 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Auburn
|
+25.7 | 156.0 | 91% | 59–100 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Western Kentucky
|
+6.8 | 145.6 | 76% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Southern Miss
|
-5.0 | 134.8 | 30% | 69–65 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Ohio State
|
+18.3 | 151.9 | 89% | 73–95 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Kansas State
|
-1.8 | 133.3 | 42% | 73–70 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
UL Monroe
|
+3.1 | 137.0 | 59% | 74–68 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Western Illinois
|
+1.1 | 140.8 | 55% | 68–71 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Utah State
|
+9.8 | 143.5 | 79% | 75–73 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Colorado State
|
+5.2 | 139.8 | 69% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Boise State
|
+19.1 | 151.1 | 90% | 51–82 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Utah
|
+22.9 | 149.9 | 91% | 59–89 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
LSU
|
+21.6 | 150.4 | 91% | 53–99 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
UCLA
|
+25.8 | 153.1 | 91% | 75–111 | ✓ |
Denver
@
Cal Poly
|
+10.7 | 153.9 | 86% | 94–95 | ✓ |
Sacramento State
@
Oregon State
|
+21.6 | 132.0 | 90% | 45–82 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Stanford
|
+10.8 | 137.2 | 86% | 68–74 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
Sacred Heart
|
+4.3 | 149.2 | 69% | 74–66 | ✗ |
Le Moyne
@
Dartmouth
|
+6.0 | 147.8 | 71% | 80–76 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
East Texas A&M
|
-1.0 | 138.3 | 42% | 67–68 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Binghamton
|
+6.1 | 137.0 | 75% | 60–62 | ✓ |
Stonehill
@
UMass Lowell
|
+7.1 | 148.2 | 76% | 67–78 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-2.5 | 147.8 | 36% | 85–70 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
+2.9 | 141.6 | 63% | 57–81 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
La Salle
|
+12.2 | 153.4 | 87% | 72–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.