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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo
@
Georgia
|
+23.2 | 144.6 | 91% | 49–100 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Cleveland State
|
+1.1 | 125.7 | 53% | 75–92 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
North Alabama
|
+11.3 | 145.0 | 86% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Delaware State
|
+0.5 | 140.1 | 49% | 60–73 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
Belmont
|
-2.7 | 147.5 | 35% | 92–84 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+1.3 | 141.1 | 58% | 65–67 | ✓ |
UT Martin
@
Morehead State
|
+2.5 | 142.4 | 61% | 69–70 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Texas
|
+26.0 | 149.4 | 91% | 62–98 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Little Rock
|
+2.3 | 132.8 | 57% | 56–60 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Wyoming
|
+11.1 | 143.6 | 86% | 55–92 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Southern Indiana
|
+8.8 | 152.1 | 84% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Lindenwood
|
+1.9 | 142.3 | 58% | 79–73 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+4.7 | 138.6 | 72% | 72–79 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Utah Tech
|
-1.6 | 159.3 | 41% | 87–92 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+18.9 | 146.9 | 91% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Pepperdine
|
+7.0 | 138.2 | 75% | 79–76 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Saint Mary's
|
+13.7 | 132.3 | 87% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Western Michigan
|
+2.5 | 148.2 | 60% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Houston Christian
@
Texas A&M
|
+22.5 | 138.0 | 90% | 45–77 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Grambling
|
-4.7 | 134.6 | 33% | 76–70 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Seattle U
|
+7.1 | 147.8 | 77% | 79–68 | ✗ |
Rider
@
Pennsylvania
|
+1.2 | 130.9 | 52% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Alabama State
|
+2.7 | 150.0 | 63% | 83–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.