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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–12 on winners spread MAE 9.3 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Xavier @ UConn +10.4 146.9 86% 89–94 ✓
Memphis @ Virginia -2.4 132.2 39% 64–62 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UNC Wilmington +4.2 138.4 70% 66–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University +0.9 139.3 45% 80–72 ✗
Murray State @ Indiana State -3.0 151.0 38% 74–84 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ South Florida +6.2 141.3 72% 77–69 ✗
Manhattan @ Wagner +3.1 129.6 49% 80–66 ✗
Davidson @ Temple +3.3 148.3 66% 61–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairfield -4.1 134.6 32% 64–63 ✓
Austin Peay @ Ohio +6.3 135.9 76% 58–78 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Vermont +1.9 130.9 60% 67–75 ✓
Elon @ East Tennessee State +1.9 137.6 55% 58–84 ✓
Longwood @ Campbell +3.8 139.1 66% 77–55 ✗
Richmond @ William & Mary +4.7 152.7 68% 87–93 ✓
Northeastern @ Massachusetts -2.0 147.2 44% 72–77 ✗
Lafayette @ George Washington +8.2 141.0 78% 62–82 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State +7.2 139.9 78% 80–70 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +5.0 138.1 76% 60–73 ✓
Mercer @ Queens University +2.2 154.6 62% 66–73 ✓
American University @ Saint Joseph's +10.9 143.2 83% 57–84 ✓
Alabama A&M @ UAB +16.7 155.6 89% 67–96 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley +5.4 151.7 77% 73–78 ✓
UMBC @ Georgia Tech +10.6 149.1 81% 82–91 ✓
Toledo @ Houston +24.7 143.0 91% 49–78 ✓
The Citadel @ Vanderbilt +26.3 148.8 90% 53–105 ✓
Evansville @ UT Arlington +8.1 146.0 76% 54–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Bradley +3.7 142.4 65% 64–66 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas +33.6 127.3 91% 42–83 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Illinois State +16.3 146.6 89% 60–81 ✓
Wofford @ Saint Louis +2.5 145.2 63% 74–71 ✗
Tarleton State @ Oklahoma State +17.1 137.5 90% 61–66 ✓
App State @ Louisiana -4.4 134.0 40% 62–68 ✗
Canisius @ Loyola Chicago +19.7 142.4 90% 60–72 ✓
Alabama @ North Dakota -12.9 164.8 14% 97–90 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +12.5 147.2 87% 70–80 ✓
Nicholls @ Gonzaga +31.4 149.3 90% 72–102 ✓
Michigan @ Oklahoma +0.9 146.9 50% 86–87 ✓
Samford @ Arizona +12.5 162.7 84% 64–96 ✓
Utah Valley @ Idaho State +3.6 139.1 67% 70–56 ✗
Idaho @ UC Davis +8.3 141.0 80% 66–74 ✓
VCU @ New Mexico +2.8 148.0 60% 71–78 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount -1.8 135.5 45% 58–60 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Portland -2.8 144.9 44% 81–64 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ USC +3.9 147.1 65% 69–90 ✓
Montana State @ UC Riverside +2.2 141.5 64% 80–83 ✓
Portland State @ Pacific +4.6 144.5 66% 81–75 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Santa Clara +10.9 145.9 82% 74–94 ✓
Washington State @ Washington +0.4 144.1 51% 73–89 ✓
Alabama State @ Norfolk State +3.5 147.4 69% 54–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.