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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+24.3 | 143.7 | 91% | 49–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 127.1 | 49% | 75–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 144.2 | 86% | 69–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 141.6 | 45% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 147.6 | 39% | 92–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 142.4 | 54% | 65–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 143.6 | 57% | 69–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.6 | 149.8 | 91% | 62–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 133.2 | 59% | 56–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 142.5 | 84% | 55–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 152.9 | 82% | 75–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.8 | 55% | 79–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 137.6 | 69% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 155.6 | 46% | 87–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.9 | 147.2 | 91% | 51–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 137.9 | 75% | 79–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.9 | 131.0 | 87% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 149.5 | 64% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.3 | 138.7 | 90% | 45–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 135.7 | 26% | 76–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 148.0 | 77% | 79–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 130.2 | 56% | 66–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 150.1 | 55% | 83–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.