And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–8 on winners spread MAE 7.8 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Tennessee +33.0 136.5 91% 36–84 ✓
George Mason @ Duke +19.4 134.3 89% 47–68 ✓
Florida @ North Carolina -3.3 158.7 31% 90–84 ✓
Southern @ Ole Miss +20.2 144.4 90% 61–74 ✓
Michigan State @ Oakland -13.6 133.8 16% 77–58 ✓
UNLV @ Dayton +14.5 142.8 87% 65–66 ✓
Clemson @ South Carolina -1.1 134.5 51% 88–91 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Georgia Southern +2.8 149.0 64% 81–86 ✓
Towson @ Robert Morris +5.1 132.4 66% 67–68 ✓
Marist @ Stony Brook -0.3 135.6 48% 68–66 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ North Carolina A&T -0.3 142.5 41% 73–68 ✓
Florida International @ East Carolina +5.0 137.7 69% 64–75 ✓
West Georgia @ Charlotte +10.4 139.0 80% 70–75 ✓
Holy Cross @ Quinnipiac +4.4 139.4 65% 70–69 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Siena -6.6 129.7 27% 65–48 ✓
Winthrop @ Florida State +14.2 153.5 88% 64–82 ✓
James Madison @ Wake Forest +2.4 131.4 65% 58–75 ✓
Central Michigan @ Mississippi State +13.7 146.9 85% 59–83 ✓
Kansas City @ Wichita State +13.0 144.2 85% 74–64 ✗
Seton Hall @ Villanova +11.9 132.7 86% 67–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Missouri +17.5 152.1 88% 72–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Maryland +29.4 147.9 91% 57–111 ✓
Georgia State @ Auburn +32.4 154.5 91% 59–100 ✓
Seattle U @ Western Kentucky +7.4 146.5 77% 73–86 ✓
Lamar @ Southern Miss -4.0 135.2 29% 69–65 ✓
Valparaiso @ Ohio State +19.1 152.3 89% 73–95 ✓
Drake @ Kansas State -0.6 135.8 31% 73–70 ✓
Houston Christian @ UL Monroe +3.6 135.4 60% 74–68 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Western Illinois +1.1 141.3 54% 68–71 ✓
UC San Diego @ Utah State +10.1 142.6 72% 75–73 ✗
Radford @ Colorado State +4.9 139.7 71% 68–78 ✓
Texas Southern @ Boise State +21.6 150.8 90% 51–82 ✓
Florida A&M @ Utah +27.7 150.2 91% 59–89 ✓
Stetson @ LSU +26.4 150.9 91% 53–99 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UCLA +33.5 146.8 91% 75–111 ✓
Denver @ Cal Poly +11.6 156.4 85% 94–95 ✓
Sacramento State @ Oregon State +23.3 130.8 90% 45–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Stanford +10.6 135.8 84% 68–74 ✓
UAlbany @ Sacred Heart +4.4 150.5 71% 74–66 ✗
Le Moyne @ Dartmouth +6.2 148.9 68% 80–76 ✗
Abilene Christian @ East Texas A&M -0.9 139.8 49% 67–68 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Binghamton +6.8 135.6 76% 60–62 ✓
Stonehill @ UMass Lowell +7.4 149.6 77% 67–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ South Carolina Upstate -2.0 148.8 36% 85–70 ✓
Creighton @ Georgetown +2.8 142.8 66% 57–81 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ La Salle +13.1 154.3 87% 72–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.