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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
42–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
50 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-7.5 | 155.4 | 26% | 77–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 147.8 | 58% | 64–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 133.5 | 57% | 62–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.6 | 144.7 | 87% | 71–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.2 | 138.3 | 86% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 155.6 | 85% | 63–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 142.6 | 46% | 65–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 141.4 | 68% | 64–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 138.6 | 77% | 64–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 135.2 | 56% | 69–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 128.9 | 42% | 53–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 146.8 | 50% | 85–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 144.5 | 85% | 51–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 137.1 | 58% | 77–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 161.0 | 64% | 82–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+26.7 | 156.8 | 91% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.4 | 131.0 | 88% | 62–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 132.3 | 90% | 63–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+33.2 | 156.1 | 91% | 72–108 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 159.7 | 36% | 70–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 138.7 | 86% | 73–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.7 | 149.6 | 90% | 77–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 135.7 | 57% | 53–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 159.6 | 75% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 139.2 | 58% | 64–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 143.3 | 29% | 96–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 173.7 | 86% | 93–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 132.8 | 80% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.0 | 148.6 | 88% | 74–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.1 | 149.9 | 91% | 53–112 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 147.3 | 63% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 150.6 | 61% | 78–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.6 | 149.0 | 40% | 89–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+35.1 | 155.2 | 91% | 70–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.4 | 151.7 | 91% | 70–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 142.1 | 47% | 79–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 133.9 | 80% | 60–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 150.6 | 84% | 73–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.6 | 138.8 | 83% | 60–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 150.4 | 44% | 85–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 149.6 | 40% | 78–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.4 | 142.0 | 89% | 58–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 137.8 | 80% | 60–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 136.9 | 88% | 71–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 145.2 | 75% | 77–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 147.1 | 84% | 69–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 149.1 | 87% | 90–113 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.6 | 133.1 | 20% | 84–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 137.0 | 59% | 49–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 136.2 | 34% | 72–76 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.