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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–8 on winners spread MAE 7.8 28 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Georgia +33.4 160.8 91% 82–112 ✓
Bradley @ Indiana State -0.8 141.3 42% 108–99 ✓
Temple @ Davidson +9.9 145.6 80% 68–63 ✗
Radford @ William & Mary +16.9 159.9 86% 83–96 ✓
Furman @ Manhattan -4.6 149.5 37% 75–68 ✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona +10.5 141.0 84% 57–65 ✓
American University @ VCU +19.9 147.7 89% 83–105 ✓
Delaware State @ Saint Joseph's +10.8 137.1 88% 51–67 ✓
Lafayette @ Charlotte +11.0 133.0 83% 67–81 ✓
Fairfield @ Central Connecticut +7.4 145.2 77% 84–70 ✗
Norfolk State @ Grambling -1.5 132.8 51% 68–80 ✗
Drake @ Murray State +8.2 157.4 80% 72–81 ✓
Winthrop @ North Dakota -10.1 151.8 17% 88–90 ✗
Kansas City @ Oklahoma State +25.2 152.1 91% 79–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU +19.9 145.5 89% 53–72 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern +10.2 154.2 85% 67–90 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +14.8 130.7 88% 54–62 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +1.4 135.2 58% 71–78 ✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana +4.4 140.6 73% 77–62 ✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood +12.9 145.1 87% 76–92 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +0.3 149.5 52% 75–68 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +2.2 152.2 68% 74–85 ✓
Pepperdine @ Long Beach State +3.7 138.5 65% 78–81 ✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart +0.9 147.5 57% 63–85 ✓
Grambling @ Hampton +1.3 132.8 57% 81–72 ✗
South Dakota State @ Milwaukee +0.6 147.4 54% 87–88 ✓
Coppin State @ Navy +23.4 139.6 91% 55–88 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +0.5 152.8 39% 72–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.