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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–20 on winners spread MAE 9.5 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Miami @ Georgetown -5.6 152.4 34% 78–65 ✓
Wichita State @ Western Kentucky -1.8 146.1 47% 70–75 ✗
Stanford @ Saint Louis +4.8 154.9 66% 78–77 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Clemson +22.6 141.7 91% 56–92 ✓
Georgia Tech @ DePaul -0.2 143.4 55% 61–75 ✗
SMU @ Mississippi State -7.5 159.1 28% 87–81 ✓
Ohio State @ Pittsburgh -2.3 140.8 47% 66–67 ✗
Colgate @ UAlbany -8.3 141.3 23% 69–67 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana +9.1 135.9 86% 51–45 ✗
Sam Houston @ Idaho -0.1 149.6 50% 94–68 ✓
BYU @ Dayton -7.4 147.2 23% 83–79 ✓
Minnesota @ Santa Clara +12.2 133.1 83% 75–86 ✓
LSU @ Drake -8.4 149.7 26% 71–62 ✓
Stony Brook @ Loyola Marymount +9.1 134.6 79% 71–68 ✗
North Dakota @ Hawai'i +13.3 140.2 86% 55–92 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Indiana +22.7 147.5 90% 56–100 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Navy +5.7 133.7 65% 69–65 ✗
Alcorn State @ Louisiana Tech +6.1 133.2 69% 58–83 ✓
Manhattan @ Army +2.0 150.4 69% 78–81 ✓
VMI @ UCF +26.0 152.5 91% 57–82 ✓
Boston University @ Northern Kentucky +7.6 144.8 72% 65–74 ✓
Maine @ Longwood +2.1 134.8 53% 61–65 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Niagara +3.9 141.6 68% 70–66 ✗
Dartmouth @ Saint Peter's +11.1 145.4 77% 87–61 ✗
Lehigh @ Texas State +1.7 130.2 60% 78–74 ✗
Houston Christian @ Georgia Southern +2.1 137.1 60% 62–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Nebraska +17.6 153.4 88% 63–72 ✓
Southern @ Northwestern State +2.6 160.2 61% 75–73 ✗
Merrimack @ Hofstra +5.4 137.4 73% 58–78 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Georgia +25.5 155.7 91% 81–123 ✓
Western Carolina @ High Point +21.5 153.2 90% 73–93 ✓
James Madison @ George Mason +16.1 143.5 88% 66–82 ✓
Delaware State @ UMBC +14.0 131.7 88% 57–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Le Moyne -1.2 141.4 44% 79–83 ✗
Southern Utah @ Stetson +4.3 144.2 72% 70–68 ✗
Morehead State @ IU Indianapolis +3.6 158.1 72% 80–85 ✓
Bryant @ Harvard +11.2 131.1 85% 53–56 ✓
Lipscomb @ Southeast Missouri State +1.6 148.7 59% 88–77 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington -1.3 136.5 47% 61–66 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Wilmington +28.9 142.9 91% 62–88 ✓
Western Michigan @ Valparaiso +2.7 140.2 55% 55–84 ✓
Norfolk State @ Arizona +20.1 135.6 89% 61–98 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Drake +0.4 139.9 53% 74–84 ✓
South Carolina State @ Winthrop +28.5 148.9 91% 79–101 ✓
Kansas City @ Weber State +12.3 152.0 85% 61–82 ✓
Montana State @ Utah State +15.7 144.1 88% 81–84 ✓
Central Arkansas @ East Tennessee State +16.6 141.1 87% 57–80 ✓
Mercer @ Elon +6.7 160.9 75% 91–84 ✗
Siena @ American University +1.4 139.9 57% 59–55 ✗
Howard @ Mount St. Mary's -1.3 139.6 35% 75–79 ✗
Air Force @ South Dakota -1.6 141.5 44% 63–80 ✗
Seattle U @ UC Santa Barbara -4.3 144.6 31% 71–74 ✗
Ball State @ Lafayette +1.0 135.8 49% 37–55 ✓
La Salle @ Pennsylvania +7.4 139.0 75% 71–73 ✓
Wofford @ Eastern Kentucky -0.8 148.8 54% 83–77 ✓
UC Riverside @ Utah Tech +2.6 142.4 60% 69–77 ✓
Pepperdine @ Cal State Fullerton +3.4 157.3 68% 69–83 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Penn State +14.5 151.4 86% 59–90 ✓
Buffalo @ Canisius -8.8 127.9 24% 71–53 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.