The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–12 on winners spread MAE 7.8 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida @ South Carolina -10.5 142.7 18% 70–69 ✓
Kansas @ TCU -5.1 131.1 26% 74–61 ✓
Xavier @ St. John's +7.8 143.0 80% 71–79 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +2.8 141.3 62% 77–74 ✗
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -14.3 154.9 15% 86–77 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +0.2 157.2 49% 61–53 ✗
South Florida @ Charlotte +0.2 142.8 57% 61–69 ✓
Syracuse @ Clemson +13.4 145.7 87% 72–86 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech +4.7 141.4 70% 64–71 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts -1.7 154.3 47% 61–74 ✗
Murray State @ Southern Illinois -0.1 141.3 48% 74–64 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +2.1 128.4 64% 47–62 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland +1.8 139.7 57% 80–59 ✗
Lehigh @ American University +6.2 135.1 70% 67–68 ✓
Indiana @ Northwestern +4.8 144.0 71% 70–79 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion -6.1 136.3 26% 74–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +11.5 138.7 87% 50–65 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland -0.4 142.9 49% 72–76 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay -2.7 142.4 39% 86–77 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +0.6 147.0 51% 95–79 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +11.2 144.0 84% 79–78 ✗
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +15.9 140.1 90% 58–85 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +15.6 132.7 89% 68–79 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +3.7 144.1 64% 61–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +12.5 128.4 85% 71–81 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +0.3 142.8 58% 72–75 ✓
Temple @ North Texas +8.4 133.0 78% 67–76 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +6.5 146.1 75% 52–64 ✓
Fordham @ Loyola Chicago +7.5 153.4 81% 66–70 ✓
UIC @ Evansville -5.3 139.8 28% 78–67 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +5.2 141.3 70% 63–62 ✗
Kansas State @ Baylor +13.7 144.0 88% 62–70 ✓
Florida State @ California -2.6 147.8 43% 68–77 ✗
Nevada @ Utah State +6.6 143.9 76% 69–90 ✓
USC @ Nebraska +6.2 147.7 73% 78–73 ✗
Georgia @ Arkansas +1.6 137.9 55% 65–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Air Force -15.4 127.2 12% 77–76 ✓
Miami @ Stanford +13.6 152.3 86% 51–88 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +3.0 144.2 66% 58–85 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana -7.0 145.7 29% 89–74 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +5.3 144.8 67% 83–94 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +0.5 143.6 48% 86–85 ✗
UMBC @ UAlbany +3.5 155.5 66% 92–87 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine -13.2 140.4 14% 77–61 ✓
Marist @ Niagara -2.2 131.2 34% 67–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.