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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–14 on winners spread MAE 8.4 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ Iowa State +3.6 143.7 63% 57–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +6.9 145.9 73% 75–79 ✓
UAB @ South Florida +0.5 161.8 52% 92–83 ✗
California @ North Carolina +15.8 168.2 92% 53–79 ✓
NC State @ Virginia Tech -1.0 134.1 46% 76–79 ✗
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +14.9 132.2 91% 49–63 ✓
Massachusetts @ Fordham +2.8 155.5 60% 120–118 ✗
Duquesne @ George Washington +7.1 137.4 74% 73–65 ✗
George Mason @ Dayton +5.6 135.2 69% 67–59 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +4.8 146.4 67% 73–51 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -0.3 141.5 49% 73–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +6.7 141.5 73% 82–86 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +10.3 132.5 83% 77–82 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +0.7 156.3 53% 120–113 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +8.6 137.5 78% 59–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.1 131.5 68% 58–76 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +1.3 151.1 55% 81–83 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -5.9 173.8 30% 75–74 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +3.7 139.8 63% 70–73 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +21.0 128.0 97% 57–70 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan State +10.3 154.8 83% 85–90 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -0.3 158.1 49% 65–80 ✗
Troy @ UL Monroe -11.7 137.5 14% 77–58 ✓
Georgia @ Tennessee +10.4 130.5 83% 56–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +14.8 125.0 91% 54–70 ✓
Utah @ TCU +3.1 140.1 61% 73–65 ✗
Murray State @ UIC +2.1 147.3 58% 93–97 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +11.3 163.4 85% 65–118 ✓
Georgia State @ Texas State +12.3 147.7 87% 80–94 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +15.9 138.7 93% 62–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Colorado -3.4 131.0 38% 68–62 ✓
SMU @ Virginia -6.2 136.5 29% 54–52 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State -4.0 152.0 36% 70–82 ✗
Rhode Island @ Loyola Chicago -1.8 148.5 43% 77–81 ✗
Illinois State @ Drake +8.5 128.0 78% 62–66 ✓
Omaha @ Denver -3.9 149.3 36% 80–62 ✓
Purdue @ Washington -9.3 144.8 20% 69–58 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma +0.5 152.6 52% 77–73 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -6.6 149.1 27% 62–65 ✗
Maine @ NJIT -8.2 129.5 23% 57–44 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +17.3 154.3 94% 79–76 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany -1.3 162.2 45% 89–79 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +13.9 157.1 90% 74–84 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -17.2 145.5 6% 87–53 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +14.6 140.9 91% 60–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.