All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Atlantic 10 Conference · Gentile Arena · January 16, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -4.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money LUC -225 / URI +190
Model Predictions
Spread Total LUC win
Actual LUC +4 158 Won
Massey URI -2.4 (+6.4)
Massey Totals 148.6 (+9.4)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 49%
Baseline Plus ML URI -1.5 (+5.5) 145.6 (+12.4) 44%
Model 4 ML URI -0.6 (+4.6) 145.2 (+12.8) 55%
Model 3 ML URI -1.8 (+5.8) 143.5 (+14.5) 42%
Baseline ML URI -2.5 (+6.5) 143.2 (+14.8) 39%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 LUC 6157 URI
Feb 18, 2024 LUC 7767 URI
Mar 2, 2023 URI 7977 LUC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LUC URI
Overall 25-12 18-13
Conference 12-6 7-11
Home 17-1 14-3
Away 7-5 1-9
Neutral 1-6 3-1
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.7 77.1
Avg Pts Against 69.4 75.2
Massey -1.1 (#175) 5.1 (#97)
Bradley-Terry 0.23 (#152) 1.07 (#84)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.29 (#148) 1.14 (#94)
RPI 0.502 (#170) 0.583 (#47)
Shooting & Four Factors LUC URI
FG% 45.2% 45.2%
3PT% 33.6% 33.0%
REB / G 35.9 39.7
OREB / G 11.0 10.5
AST / TO 1.27 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 51.2%
TOV% 17.5% 17.0%
ORB% 31.3% 29.3%
FT Rate 22.9% 31.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.7% 45.3%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 16.3%
DRB% 72.9% 73.3%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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