Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -225 URI +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | URI -2.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -1.8 (+5.8) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -0.6 (+4.6) | 145.2 (+12.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -1.5 (+5.5) | 145.6 (+12.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | URI -2.5 (+6.5) | 143.2 (+14.8) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | LUC 61 – 57 URI |
| Feb 18, 2024 | LUC 77 – 67 URI |
| Mar 2, 2023 | URI 79 – 77 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#175) | 5.1 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#152) | 1.07 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#148) | 1.14 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#170) | 0.583 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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