He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
Iowa State Cyclones
74 57
FINAL Conference
Kansas Jayhawks
Big 12 Conference · Hilton Coliseum · January 16, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ISU -5.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money ISU -240 / KU +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total ISU win
Actual ISU +17 131 Won
Massey ISU -4.1 (+12.9)
Massey Totals 144.4 (-13.4)
Bradley-Terry 84%
Weighted B-T 91%
Efficiency Plus ML ISU -5.7 (+11.3) 139.8 (-8.8) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML ISU -4.9 (+12.1) 138.3 (-7.3) 68%
Baseline ML ISU -5.3 (+11.7) 140.0 (-9.0) 73%
Baseline Plus ML ISU -6.3 (+10.7) 143.8 (-12.8) 73%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 ISU 7456 KU
Jan 14, 2026 KU 8463 ISU
Feb 4, 2025 KU 6952 ISU
Jan 27, 2024 ISU 7975 KU
Mar 11, 2023 KU 7158 ISU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ISU KU
Overall 25-10 21-13
Conference 13-7 11-9
Home 15-2 14-3
Away 6-5 4-8
Neutral 4-3 3-2
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 80.3 76.1
Avg Pts Against 68.3 69.6
Massey 21.1 (#6) 20.8 (#8)
Bradley-Terry 4.54 (#3) 3.54 (#15)
W. Bradley-Terry 6.14 (#2) 4.68 (#12)
RPI 0.643 (#16) 0.683 (#4)
Shooting & Four Factors ISU KU
FG% 50.1% 47.8%
3PT% 34.7% 33.1%
REB / G 36.9 39.9
OREB / G 11.3 10.9
AST / TO 1.68 1.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.2% 53.3%
TOV% 14.1% 14.7%
ORB% 34.4% 31.6%
FT Rate 30.5% 15.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.0% 42.6%
Opp TOV% 22.2% 17.6%
DRB% 71.7% 75.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 20.3%

Game Analysis

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