Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UVA +200 SMU -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -7.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -5.6 (+3.6) | 128.1 (-22.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.0 (+4.0) | 136.8 (-30.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -6.4 (+4.4) | 136.2 (-30.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.6 (+5.6) | 126.7 (-20.7) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UVA 72 – 68 SMU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | SMU 63 – 51 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | 12.1 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#102) | 1.94 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#107) | 2.58 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#105) | 0.570 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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