The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–8 on winners spread MAE 8.2 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi State @ Auburn +13.4 159.0 89% 66–88 ✓
Ole Miss @ Alabama +9.4 165.1 80% 74–64 ✗
Marquette @ DePaul -11.9 152.4 14% 85–83 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kentucky +5.0 159.2 68% 69–81 ✓
Illinois @ Indiana -7.8 155.8 24% 94–69 ✓
North Texas @ East Carolina -5.4 129.7 31% 69–60 ✓
Louisville @ Syracuse -8.6 155.5 22% 85–61 ✓
Saint Louis @ VCU +11.4 142.9 85% 62–78 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +13.4 127.7 89% 94–83 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +10.3 167.1 83% 78–85 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois -14.9 149.8 9% 84–69 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan +10.1 144.2 82% 63–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Bowling Green +9.0 157.5 79% 61–79 ✓
Ball State @ Ohio +7.4 154.2 75% 71–86 ✓
Charlotte @ Wichita State +10.0 152.8 82% 59–68 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +7.6 166.6 75% 64–71 ✓
Georgetown @ St. John's +11.5 142.4 85% 58–63 ✓
UTSA @ Rice +7.7 148.1 76% 90–84 ✗
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +15.8 131.3 92% 56–73 ✓
Providence @ Creighton +7.8 142.4 76% 64–84 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +3.3 131.8 62% 73–71 ✗
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +4.6 154.8 66% 68–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Kansas State -11.4 152.5 15% 61–57 ✓
Oklahoma State @ BYU +14.8 149.5 91% 69–85 ✓
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -6.9 142.4 26% 70–59 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +13.0 137.2 88% 55–96 ✓
Missouri @ Florida +11.3 154.2 85% 83–82 ✗
Arkansas @ LSU +0.2 146.7 51% 74–78 ✓
Miami @ Duke +28.6 149.7 100% 54–89 ✓
New Mexico @ San José State -7.8 157.5 24% 70–71 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +19.2 129.0 96% 62–68 ✓
Iowa @ USC -0.5 160.4 48% 89–99 ✗
Baylor @ Arizona +5.2 157.5 68% 70–81 ✓
Colorado State @ San Diego State +9.8 130.3 81% 60–75 ✓
UCF @ Arizona State +8.6 149.5 78% 95–89 ✗
Lafayette @ Army +1.5 145.7 55% 68–70 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +3.2 134.3 61% 58–63 ✓
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt +10.0 146.7 82% 63–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI +6.3 143.7 72% 50–66 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +14.6 167.5 91% 92–93 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +10.3 160.8 83% 97–102 ✓
Stanford @ Wake Forest +2.2 138.7 58% 67–80 ✓
Davidson @ La Salle +0.8 152.0 53% 76–79 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.