Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UK -300 TA&M +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UK -6.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.9 (+7.1) | 154.8 (-4.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.1 (+6.9) | 157.5 (-7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.3 (+6.7) | 156.1 (-6.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.8 (+7.2) | 157.5 (-7.5) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | TA&M 96 – 85 UK |
| Mar 15, 2024 | TA&M 97 – 87 UK |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TA&M 97 – 92 UK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UK 76 – 67 TA&M |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UK 64 – 58 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#13) | 16.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#10) | 3.43 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.60 (#11) | 4.23 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#9) | 0.647 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 17.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 44.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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