Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UK -250 TA&M +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +10 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -5.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.5 (+23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -1.3 (-11.3) | 157.6 (+26.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -2.5 (-12.5) | 157.8 (+26.2) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.8 (-12.8) | 157.6 (+26.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.6 (-12.6) | 156.6 (+27.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | TA&M 96 – 85 UK |
| Jan 15, 2025 | UK 81 – 69 TA&M |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TA&M 97 – 92 UK |
| Jan 21, 2023 | UK 76 – 67 TA&M |
| Jan 20, 2022 | UK 64 – 58 TA&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#17) | 10.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#13) | 1.81 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#12) | 2.47 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#38) | 0.564 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 42.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 17.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 42.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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