Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | USC -155 IOWA +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +10 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -0.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -1.2 (+8.8) | 157.6 (+30.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -0.9 (+9.1) | 160.1 (+27.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -0.9 (+9.1) | 158.9 (+29.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -2.1 (+7.9) | 158.4 (+29.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | IOWA 73 – 72 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-7 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | 13.1 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#75) | 2.61 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#59) | 3.72 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#92) | 0.586 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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