Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | LAS +105 DAV -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +3 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -0.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -0.1 (+2.9) | 146.1 (+8.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -0.2 (+2.8) | 147.8 (+7.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -0.2 (+3.2) | 148.7 (+6.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -0.4 (+2.6) | 148.3 (+6.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | DAV 71 – 64 LAS |
| Feb 14, 2024 | DAV 71 – 56 LAS |
| Jan 25, 2023 | DAV 64 – 57 LAS |
| Jan 29, 2022 | DAV 77 – 69 LAS |
| Jan 16, 2021 | DAV 77 – 53 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | 2.8 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#135) | 0.95 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#174) | 1.51 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#118) | 0.536 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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