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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
33–12 on winners
spread MAE 7.8
45 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-8.5 | 156.8 | 17% | 80–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 147.8 | 46% | 81–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 147.1 | 57% | 64–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 148.2 | 64% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 154.8 | 22% | 77–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 137.6 | 75% | 75–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 139.6 | 55% | 73–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 153.7 | 49% | 75–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 154.2 | 48% | 84–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 134.5 | 38% | 87–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.8 | 154.8 | 89% | 92–105 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 154.2 | 69% | 80–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 152.4 | 38% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 147.7 | 70% | 84–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 133.9 | 74% | 83–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 150.8 | 53% | 73–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.7 | 147.2 | 29% | 70–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.6 | 132.9 | 39% | 76–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 153.5 | 82% | 73–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 145.1 | 52% | 53–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.8 | 148.7 | 77% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 132.5 | 64% | 57–45 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.1 | 144.1 | 89% | 58–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 166.9 | 38% | 103–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 135.0 | 78% | 53–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 147.3 | 85% | 71–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.0 | 138.1 | 88% | 59–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 145.1 | 63% | 70–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 141.9 | 46% | 69–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 129.3 | 21% | 67–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 148.6 | 70% | 63–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 148.7 | 66% | 67–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 132.2 | 87% | 52–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 143.9 | 82% | 85–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.9 | 136.1 | 22% | 69–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 144.7 | 74% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 137.2 | 81% | 64–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 136.8 | 52% | 71–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 140.1 | 49% | 87–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.5 | 139.3 | 19% | 67–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 149.5 | 63% | 74–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 156.6 | 64% | 84–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.3 | 143.0 | 29% | 82–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 155.8 | 50% | 71–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 135.3 | 79% | 60–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.