Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +115 UAB -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -1.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -0.8 (+7.8) | 153.7 (+3.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -0.3 (+6.7) | 153.7 (+3.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -0.1 (+7.1) | 156.3 (+0.7) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.0 (+7.0) | 155.4 (+1.6) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UAB 90 – 83 ECU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UAB 87 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 94 – 77 ECU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | UAB 69 – 61 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#174) | 3.5 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#181) | 0.37 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#212) | 0.48 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#201) | 0.518 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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