Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | TEX +175 ALA -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +23 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -3.6 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -4.3 (-18.7) | 160.7 (+22.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALA -2.0 (-21.0) | 166.9 (+16.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALA -2.4 (-20.6) | 166.8 (+16.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.0 (-21.0) | 164.6 (+18.4) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | TEX 92 – 88 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#30) | 21.6 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#39) | 4.28 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#44) | 5.25 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#84) | 0.697 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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