Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Alabama Crimson Tide
88 92
FINAL Conference
Texas Longhorns
Southeastern Conference · Coleman Coliseum · January 11, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -11.5 Away covered
O/U 177.5 Over
Money ALA -800 / TEX +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual TEX +4 180 Lost
Massey ALA -12.4 (-16.4)
Massey Totals 180.7 (-0.7)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -13.7 (-17.7) 173.0 (+7.0) 83%
Model 4 ML ALA -11.0 (-15.0) 172.5 (+7.5) 82%
Model 3 ML ALA -12.3 (-16.3) 169.1 (+10.9) 86%
Baseline ML ALA -12.6 (-16.6) 169.1 (+10.9) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 12, 2025 ALA 10380 TEX

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA TEX
Overall 25-10 21-15
Conference 13-5 9-9
Home 12-3 12-5
Away 7-3 5-6
Neutral 6-4 4-4
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 91.2 81.7
Avg Pts Against 82.7 76.1
Massey 19.9 (#12) 11.0 (#54)
Bradley-Terry 3.60 (#13) 0.50 (#132)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.97 (#13) 1.19 (#100)
RPI 0.661 (#10) 0.481 (#207)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA TEX
FG% 46.1% 47.5%
3PT% 35.1% 33.2%
REB / G 42.5 39.7
OREB / G 13.4 13.1
AST / TO 1.66 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.6% 54.0%
TOV% 13.5% 15.3%
ORB% 34.0% 37.6%
FT Rate 26.4% 36.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 14.1% 15.7%
DRB% 66.9% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.2% 27.8%

Game Analysis

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