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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–12 on winners spread MAE 9.0 49 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Xavier @ UConn	+12.6	143.6	87%	89–94	✓
Memphis @ Virginia	-3.0	127.5	39%	64–62	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UNC Wilmington	+5.1	138.8	78%	66–79	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University	+0.5	136.5	43%	80–72	✗
Murray State @ Indiana State	-0.1	150.6	49%	74–84	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ South Florida	+10.1	142.7	82%	77–69	✗
Manhattan @ Wagner	+0.9	128.2	42%	80–66	✗
Davidson @ Temple	+1.7	146.7	63%	61–62	✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairfield	-1.7	133.7	41%	64–63	✓
Austin Peay @ Ohio	+6.8	137.9	75%	58–78	✓
Miami (OH) @ Vermont	+1.3	131.7	59%	67–75	✓
Elon @ East Tennessee State	+4.5	136.3	76%	58–84	✓
Longwood @ Campbell	+1.2	138.4	53%	77–55	✗
Richmond @ William & Mary	+3.6	151.6	58%	87–93	✓
Northeastern @ Massachusetts	+1.5	147.3	63%	72–77	✓
Lafayette @ George Washington	+9.8	142.9	85%	62–82	✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State	+6.5	143.0	72%	80–70	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+6.4	136.6	80%	60–73	✓
Mercer @ Queens University	+1.1	154.8	56%	66–73	✓
American University @ Saint Joseph's	+12.4	142.8	86%	57–84	✓
Alabama A&M @ UAB	+19.1	154.1	89%	67–96	✓
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+4.2	151.7	69%	73–78	✓
UMBC @ Georgia Tech	+11.5	154.3	85%	82–91	✓
Toledo @ Houston	+22.9	137.7	90%	49–78	✓
The Citadel @ Vanderbilt	+22.2	149.8	90%	53–105	✓
Evansville @ UT Arlington	+9.3	145.3	78%	54–80	✓
San Francisco @ Bradley	+3.0	138.1	64%	64–66	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas	+26.3	127.2	91%	42–83	✓
Northern Illinois @ Illinois State	+15.1	146.2	88%	60–81	✓
Wofford @ Saint Louis	+1.2	142.9	57%	74–71	✗
Tarleton State @ Oklahoma State	+14.4	137.6	90%	61–66	✓
App State @ Louisiana	-5.2	130.9	37%	62–68	✗
Canisius @ Loyola Chicago	+20.2	142.9	90%	60–72	✓
Alabama @ North Dakota	-11.1	169.8	13%	97–90	✓
Butler @ Marquette	+12.6	146.3	87%	70–80	✓
Nicholls @ Gonzaga	+27.1	151.4	91%	72–102	✓
Michigan @ Oklahoma	+2.6	145.5	65%	86–87	✓
Samford @ Arizona	+11.8	160.9	84%	64–96	✓
Utah Valley @ Idaho State	+2.6	135.4	58%	70–56	✗
Idaho @ UC Davis	+9.3	140.8	83%	66–74	✓
VCU @ New Mexico	+3.7	145.9	73%	71–78	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount	-1.5	136.2	53%	58–60	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Portland	-6.2	143.2	30%	81–64	✓
Cal State Northridge @ USC	+4.3	146.9	72%	69–90	✓
Montana State @ UC Riverside	+3.0	142.3	64%	80–83	✓
Portland State @ Pacific	+1.4	144.0	56%	81–75	✗
Kennesaw State @ Santa Clara	+12.2	150.8	85%	74–94	✓
Washington State @ Washington	-0.2	145.6	51%	73–89	✗
Alabama State @ Norfolk State	+4.7	144.7	73%	54–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.