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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+24.5 | 137.5 | 90% | 36–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 131.9 | 89% | 47–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 160.8 | 36% | 90–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.8 | 146.4 | 89% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.4 | 131.1 | 15% | 77–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 139.6 | 87% | 65–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 134.3 | 41% | 88–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 146.8 | 58% | 81–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 133.8 | 63% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 133.4 | 42% | 68–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 141.9 | 55% | 73–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 136.7 | 75% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 136.7 | 84% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 141.0 | 77% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.1 | 129.6 | 21% | 65–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 157.2 | 87% | 64–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 134.4 | 67% | 58–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.7 | 144.5 | 88% | 59–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 146.0 | 82% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.3 | 128.7 | 84% | 67–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.5 | 151.9 | 88% | 72–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.4 | 149.5 | 91% | 57–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+27.2 | 155.0 | 91% | 59–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 145.7 | 76% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.0 | 136.6 | 23% | 69–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.5 | 151.5 | 90% | 73–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 132.0 | 37% | 73–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 134.9 | 54% | 74–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.3 | 142.4 | 73% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 141.0 | 75% | 75–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 139.5 | 78% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.4 | 148.3 | 91% | 51–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.9 | 154.2 | 91% | 59–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.0 | 155.9 | 90% | 53–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+28.0 | 153.6 | 91% | 75–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 156.3 | 81% | 94–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.8 | 128.4 | 90% | 45–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 135.5 | 87% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 145.1 | 61% | 74–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.1 | 151.8 | 74% | 80–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 136.2 | 36% | 67–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 130.6 | 71% | 60–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 148.3 | 86% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 146.5 | 31% | 85–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 146.3 | 65% | 57–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 156.7 | 88% | 72–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.