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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+9.0 | 145.5 | 77% | 51–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 130.3 | 48% | 70–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.1 | 132.0 | 79% | 62–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 158.7 | 76% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 136.5 | 84% | 72–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 140.7 | 62% | 52–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 129.0 | 86% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.6 | 132.9 | 91% | 39–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 149.2 | 62% | 71–97 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 130.0 | 72% | 65–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 140.2 | 82% | 77–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.2 | 149.5 | 87% | 57–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.7 | 127.3 | 87% | 47–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 146.7 | 71% | 71–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 136.8 | 54% | 56–49 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 145.4 | 66% | 62–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 130.3 | 46% | 73–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+21.3 | 143.4 | 90% | 69–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 137.0 | 79% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 162.7 | 44% | 90–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 151.7 | 65% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 126.5 | 71% | 54–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 141.9 | 73% | 77–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.3 | 148.3 | 90% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 153.4 | 65% | 76–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 150.9 | 85% | 60–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+26.1 | 161.6 | 91% | 71–111 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.3 | 157.1 | 90% | 55–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 147.8 | 65% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 128.6 | 66% | 64–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 146.9 | 69% | 78–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.6 | 152.6 | 88% | 86–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 139.1 | 76% | 68–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 142.2 | 72% | 53–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 145.6 | 48% | 82–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.4 | 132.4 | 79% | 57–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 133.5 | 51% | 67–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 143.5 | 85% | 61–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.2 | 59% | 83–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.5 | 155.1 | 43% | 80–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.3 | 140.2 | 51% | 57–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 148.0 | 79% | 61–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 142.5 | 85% | 63–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.