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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–15 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+6.5 | 130.7 | 78% | 72–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 146.0 | 78% | 65–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 145.1 | 42% | 59–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 128.5 | 81% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 130.9 | 42% | 87–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 139.0 | 51% | 77–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 146.9 | 73% | 77–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.0 | 155.7 | 60% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 133.5 | 67% | 59–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 151.0 | 64% | 82–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 136.5 | 72% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 135.5 | 56% | 51–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 132.6 | 60% | 59–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 133.5 | 45% | 56–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 133.2 | 63% | 55–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 128.1 | 68% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 129.4 | 66% | 71–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 125.8 | 72% | 41–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 138.5 | 71% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 129.7 | 61% | 58–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 128.7 | 62% | 43–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 129.6 | 53% | 61–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 137.5 | 61% | 52–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 153.5 | 49% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 119.4 | 68% | 46–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 129.5 | 52% | 67–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 141.3 | 51% | 76–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.4 | 145.2 | 75% | 61–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 140.2 | 71% | 65–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.8 | 142.4 | 68% | 67–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.0 | 133.4 | 81% | 56–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 121.2 | 68% | 42–36 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.9 | 132.3 | 86% | 56–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 141.8 | 52% | 67–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 142.9 | 22% | 84–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 135.8 | 43% | 57–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 138.7 | 27% | 102–98 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 138.9 | 49% | 69–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 135.3 | 76% | 54–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 140.1 | 69% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 131.3 | 72% | 59–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 146.8 | 64% | 71–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.5 | 141.6 | 69% | 63–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 132.5 | 69% | 68–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 140.5 | 80% | 72–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 136.3 | 58% | 85–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 134.9 | 60% | 69–63 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.