I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–19 on winners spread MAE 9.4 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +1.6 146.6 57% 92–91 ✗
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +12.6 136.9 86% 58–67 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Fullerton -1.9 151.4 43% 87–85 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State -3.0 146.1 38% 69–53 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's +6.7 145.3 74% 57–89 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Louis +16.2 156.7 89% 76–91 ✓
Washington State @ Pepperdine -4.8 150.0 34% 79–88 ✗
Oregon State @ Santa Clara +15.6 151.4 88% 72–93 ✓
Baylor @ UCF +4.5 158.7 72% 87–86 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ UC Riverside -3.2 149.2 34% 84–95 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City -3.5 141.2 30% 94–70 ✓
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +13.6 154.7 88% 53–68 ✓
Arkansas @ Florida +7.3 167.8 75% 77–111 ✓
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina +8.3 147.1 79% 82–89 ✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn +11.6 152.8 84% 85–79 ✗
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah -2.9 148.6 36% 67–81 ✗
Seattle U @ Loyola Marymount +1.2 135.1 53% 71–66 ✗
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +6.6 135.2 77% 67–82 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.6 148.7 36% 88–87 ✓
Nevada @ UNLV -1.4 149.8 44% 83–85 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Utah State +10.0 145.8 83% 69–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +8.5 152.7 82% 64–80 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's -1.0 141.2 39% 59–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +5.0 139.8 72% 60–64 ✓
La Salle @ Davidson +8.8 130.7 81% 64–71 ✓
Tulane @ South Florida +13.7 151.5 88% 62–90 ✓
North Texas @ UAB +5.4 134.0 73% 62–58 ✗
Rutgers @ Maryland +3.5 139.7 69% 69–65 ✗
UIC @ Indiana State -4.1 141.9 32% 63–79 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Canisius -6.9 130.0 24% 67–63 ✓
Purdue @ Ohio State -1.9 148.9 39% 74–82 ✗
Murray State @ Bradley +2.6 158.2 66% 78–87 ✓
Rice @ Temple +6.9 141.5 75% 80–74 ✗
Memphis @ East Carolina -4.7 143.6 33% 68–84 ✗
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic +6.7 146.1 76% 76–77 ✓
Rider @ Siena +13.8 132.8 88% 61–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +4.9 138.2 70% 69–47 ✗
Merrimack @ Niagara -8.1 130.8 20% 73–66 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +4.2 132.5 65% 63–56 ✗
Iona @ Manhattan -3.3 148.8 33% 69–65 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake -3.1 135.0 34% 75–53 ✓
Michigan State @ Indiana -2.2 142.9 39% 77–64 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -8.5 137.8 19% 81–67 ✓
DePaul @ Marquette +2.7 140.5 62% 62–51 ✗
Belmont @ Illinois State -0.3 148.1 49% 74–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.