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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–12 on winners spread MAE 8.1 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas @ Iowa State +4.9 138.3 68% 57–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +5.4 144.6 73% 75–79 ✓
UAB @ South Florida +1.2 155.9 56% 92–83 ✗
California @ North Carolina +12.5 154.9 87% 53–79 ✓
NC State @ Virginia Tech -1.5 134.8 44% 76–79 ✗
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure +12.4 133.2 87% 49–63 ✓
Massachusetts @ Fordham +1.5 147.3 59% 120–118 ✗
Duquesne @ George Washington +6.3 137.4 76% 73–65 ✗
George Mason @ Dayton +5.1 131.7 67% 67–59 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State +3.5 141.2 67% 73–51 ✗
Colgate @ Navy -1.4 137.5 45% 73–66 ✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell +3.2 136.3 64% 82–86 ✓
Seton Hall @ Butler +9.7 135.7 82% 77–82 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State -0.2 149.0 48% 120–113 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +6.9 137.1 77% 59–72 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Cleveland State +5.4 135.3 74% 58–76 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +0.2 147.8 52% 81–83 ✓
Samford @ Mercer -5.9 160.8 25% 75–74 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Furman +3.7 140.8 71% 70–73 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +15.8 133.5 90% 57–70 ✓
Penn State @ Michigan State +9.3 150.8 83% 85–90 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane +1.0 152.0 55% 65–80 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -11.5 136.5 14% 77–58 ✓
Georgia @ Tennessee +9.2 130.6 80% 56–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +11.5 126.3 83% 54–70 ✓
Utah @ TCU +3.0 138.8 68% 73–65 ✗
Murray State @ UIC +1.9 140.6 62% 93–97 ✓
Indiana State @ Bradley +10.6 158.7 84% 65–118 ✓
Georgia State @ Texas State +9.3 145.5 84% 80–94 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +12.2 136.6 87% 62–75 ✓
Cincinnati @ Colorado -1.0 131.5 46% 68–62 ✓
SMU @ Virginia -6.0 136.8 33% 54–52 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State -1.7 148.6 44% 70–82 ✗
Rhode Island @ Loyola Chicago -1.8 143.5 42% 77–81 ✗
Illinois State @ Drake +7.4 130.6 80% 62–66 ✓
Omaha @ Denver -5.4 147.9 28% 80–62 ✓
Purdue @ Washington -7.7 142.0 21% 69–58 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma +2.1 150.5 64% 77–73 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -5.8 145.2 28% 62–65 ✗
Maine @ NJIT -8.6 129.4 20% 57–44 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +11.4 150.4 87% 79–76 ✗
Bryant @ UAlbany -1.0 154.8 52% 89–79 ✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware +9.9 149.3 86% 74–84 ✓
Lipscomb @ Bellarmine -15.1 143.4 13% 87–53 ✓
West Georgia @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.7 141.9 88% 60–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.