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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
43 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+13.9 | 155.0 | 87% | 66–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 156.9 | 78% | 74–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.4 | 147.2 | 17% | 85–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 157.5 | 71% | 69–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 151.4 | 30% | 94–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 133.0 | 25% | 69–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 147.9 | 22% | 85–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 141.3 | 84% | 62–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 133.8 | 85% | 94–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 155.9 | 81% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.6 | 148.5 | 14% | 84–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 142.6 | 75% | 63–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 150.1 | 73% | 61–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 149.1 | 76% | 71–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 147.9 | 79% | 59–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 155.7 | 72% | 64–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 138.3 | 83% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 143.5 | 74% | 90–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 132.6 | 87% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 141.5 | 77% | 64–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 131.9 | 58% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.4 | 150.2 | 74% | 68–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.4 | 147.0 | 20% | 61–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 145.0 | 87% | 69–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.7 | 140.4 | 29% | 70–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 137.1 | 87% | 55–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 152.5 | 85% | 83–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 144.9 | 61% | 74–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.2 | 148.2 | 91% | 54–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 149.9 | 23% | 70–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.0 | 132.3 | 89% | 62–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 160.1 | 53% | 89–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 152.0 | 71% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 130.5 | 79% | 60–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 145.7 | 77% | 95–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 139.6 | 55% | 68–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 130.3 | 58% | 58–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 141.3 | 83% | 63–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 140.3 | 69% | 50–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 159.4 | 87% | 92–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 154.6 | 81% | 97–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 138.9 | 71% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 147.8 | 51% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.