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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–7 on winners spread MAE 8.4 20 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Boston College @ Notre Dame	+11.3	144.6	86%	60–78	✓
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-12.3	136.4	17%	82–53	✓
American University @ Loyola Maryland	+2.3	139.6	62%	73–54	✗
Alabama State @ Alcorn State	-3.3	146.6	33%	65–67	✗
Wofford @ Furman	+6.1	140.2	77%	81–62	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern	+2.9	134.4	64%	53–69	✓
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+10.8	145.5	86%	55–57	✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word	+1.3	141.5	58%	88–82	✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin	+0.6	126.8	53%	66–59	✗
Norfolk State @ Morgan State	-11.9	153.6	14%	74–78	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State	+13.5	143.7	87%	64–78	✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+1.8	148.5	59%	72–75	✓
Coppin State @ Howard	+10.4	148.4	86%	75–90	✓
Alabama A&M @ Jackson State	+10.1	142.2	86%	93–103	✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+6.9	144.4	78%	64–73	✓
New Orleans @ Lamar	+11.2	140.7	86%	68–62	✗
McNeese @ Houston Christian	-11.1	134.4	15%	75–59	✓
Campbell @ Elon	+8.7	134.6	82%	68–81	✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling	+4.7	133.9	68%	72–79	✓
Villanova @ Xavier	+3.5	148.7	68%	63–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.