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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.3
42 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina
@
UCF
|
+3.9 | 135.7 | 69% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Rice
@
UAB
|
+7.4 | 137.7 | 78% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Missouri
|
+5.3 | 153.9 | 71% | 70–73 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Akron
|
-0.1 | 153.1 | 49% | 67–74 | ✗ |
Seattle U
@
California Baptist
|
+0.5 | 145.9 | 52% | 83–66 | ✗ |
Niagara
@
Marist
|
+0.1 | 130.2 | 49% | 67–62 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Eastern Washington
|
+13.6 | 148.6 | 88% | 60–66 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Irvine
|
+13.4 | 130.8 | 88% | 51–58 | ✓ |
Utah
@
USC
|
+6.7 | 138.3 | 75% | 85–91 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Virginia Tech
|
-2.1 | 141.8 | 41% | 81–73 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
UConn
|
+10.1 | 137.8 | 82% | 60–94 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Wisconsin
|
+2.7 | 137.5 | 58% | 74–75 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Sam Houston
|
+7.6 | 139.0 | 79% | 70–69 | ✗ |
UNLV
@
Utah State
|
+9.5 | 135.5 | 81% | 53–74 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Norfolk State
|
+6.8 | 137.4 | 76% | 58–87 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Texas
|
-0.8 | 136.7 | 48% | 66–67 | ✗ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+6.4 | 136.7 | 76% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Grambling
|
-1.2 | 138.4 | 43% | 67–72 | ✗ |
South Carolina
@
Ole Miss
|
+6.8 | 137.9 | 76% | 59–76 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Old Dominion
|
-4.5 | 128.5 | 33% | 61–55 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
New Mexico State
|
+6.6 | 128.7 | 76% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Weber State
|
+7.7 | 141.5 | 77% | 80–75 | ✗ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Riverside
|
+6.0 | 138.0 | 73% | 52–62 | ✓ |
California
@
Colorado
|
+14.0 | 129.5 | 86% | 58–61 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+10.0 | 135.2 | 82% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Michigan
|
+6.1 | 131.6 | 73% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Alabama
|
+7.4 | 139.9 | 78% | 48–85 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+9.5 | 138.6 | 82% | 67–68 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Western Kentucky
|
-0.3 | 135.3 | 50% | 60–64 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Purdue
|
-0.6 | 139.4 | 48% | 87–78 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Tennessee
|
+1.9 | 133.0 | 58% | 66–78 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
SMU
|
+6.1 | 144.6 | 73% | 74–71 | ✗ |
|
North Texas
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+0.8 | 129.8 | 55% | 54–48 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Jackson State
|
-1.6 | 132.4 | 42% | 84–81 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
+2.8 | 157.0 | 60% | 87–80 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Niagara
|
-4.9 | 133.6 | 29% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Seton Hall
|
+1.7 | 140.6 | 56% | 66–58 | ✗ |
Morgan State
@
Coppin State
|
-4.3 | 153.9 | 34% | 82–61 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+8.6 | 154.5 | 81% | 76–88 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Illinois
|
+7.5 | 139.3 | 77% | 68–90 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Baylor
|
+8.8 | 154.1 | 79% | 83–74 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Virginia
|
+1.9 | 130.1 | 56% | 1–0 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.