← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tulane
@
Houston
|
+17.0 | 133.5 | 88% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Southern Utah
|
+6.0 | 149.1 | 75% | 80–77 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Buffalo
|
+4.4 | 151.6 | 66% | 74–81 | ✓ |
Seattle U
@
Grand Canyon
|
+5.2 | 134.0 | 71% | 47–81 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Saint Peter's
|
+3.7 | 126.3 | 67% | 52–47 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Florida State
|
+0.3 | 145.0 | 50% | 66–69 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Oregon
|
+6.9 | 139.2 | 75% | 75–64 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Iowa
|
+5.5 | 146.3 | 70% | 57–62 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Creighton
|
+1.4 | 144.2 | 53% | 56–59 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
North Carolina A&T
|
-8.1 | 141.2 | 21% | 1–0 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
LSU
|
+1.7 | 141.8 | 58% | 73–76 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Abilene Christian
|
+13.1 | 136.5 | 87% | 71–93 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+8.9 | 137.0 | 81% | 55–71 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas
|
+4.1 | 136.0 | 70% | 1–0 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
San Diego State
|
+7.9 | 137.7 | 78% | 70–77 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+5.6 | 134.6 | 73% | 63–75 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Arkansas
|
+5.1 | 152.6 | 68% | 64–70 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Memphis
|
+4.9 | 134.7 | 66% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Eastern Washington
|
+4.7 | 142.9 | 70% | 50–78 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Utah Valley
|
-2.1 | 134.8 | 40% | 78–62 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
USC
|
-0.3 | 133.7 | 47% | 72–70 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
UC Irvine
|
-0.8 | 127.9 | 48% | 61–78 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Utah State
|
+1.3 | 135.7 | 55% | 50–62 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Hartford
|
+4.3 | 138.6 | 70% | 50–64 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan
|
+3.0 | 141.8 | 61% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Tennessee
@
Alabama
|
+2.9 | 136.8 | 62% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Norfolk State
|
+0.3 | 143.9 | 52% | 63–71 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Wichita State
|
+4.1 | 143.8 | 68% | 60–59 | ✗ |
|
LSU
@
Arkansas
|
+3.2 | 161.2 | 64% | 78–71 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Illinois
|
+1.1 | 156.2 | 54% | 71–82 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Fairfield
|
-7.6 | 133.6 | 21% | 60–51 | ✓ |
|
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+6.6 | 131.6 | 76% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Texas
|
+0.9 | 144.2 | 54% | 86–91 | ✓ |
|
Utah State
@
San Diego State
|
+1.8 | 128.5 | 57% | 57–68 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+0.7 | 141.6 | 53% | 80–61 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Creighton
|
+6.1 | 145.1 | 73% | 73–48 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.