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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
+1.9 | 156.4 | 58% | 84–69 | ✗ |
Montana State
@
Eastern Washington
|
+7.1 | 147.7 | 76% | 55–65 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Florida State
|
+2.1 | 137.9 | 58% | 80–75 | ✗ |
North Texas
@
Western Kentucky
|
-0.5 | 127.3 | 49% | 61–57 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
Nicholls
|
-7.0 | 147.3 | 24% | 79–45 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+2.5 | 128.7 | 59% | 56–74 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Colorado
|
+7.4 | 135.6 | 78% | 70–68 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+2.2 | 129.8 | 58% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Colgate
|
+17.1 | 149.5 | 89% | 72–85 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Alabama
|
+3.5 | 155.8 | 64% | 79–80 | ✓ |
VCU
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+2.4 | 128.3 | 60% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Houston
|
+14.1 | 138.4 | 86% | 54–91 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Illinois
|
+4.4 | 151.5 | 68% | 88–91 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.