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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
44–5 on winners
spread MAE 10.3
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+21.6 | 149.7 | 91% | 65–100 | ✓ |
|
|
-15.5 | 146.0 | 13% | 66–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 150.0 | 65% | 73–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 137.4 | 17% | 83–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.0 | 134.1 | 24% | 68–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 146.7 | 33% | 87–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 155.7 | 87% | 58–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 141.8 | 34% | 76–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 149.8 | 87% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 132.9 | 16% | 72–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.3 | 146.3 | 75% | 77–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 147.2 | 55% | 83–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-14.1 | 150.0 | 15% | 97–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 144.1 | 83% | 59–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 144.1 | 85% | 70–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 151.7 | 74% | 67–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 146.8 | 36% | 61–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 135.2 | 85% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 140.0 | 79% | 56–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 145.9 | 79% | 71–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 153.0 | 38% | 83–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+31.6 | 141.4 | 91% | 55–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.6 | 138.0 | 90% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 155.8 | 53% | 80–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.1 | 157.9 | 34% | 90–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 140.3 | 46% | 63–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 151.0 | 24% | 95–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 133.5 | 58% | 70–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 147.1 | 80% | 76–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 152.8 | 47% | 69–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 156.3 | 52% | 77–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 141.8 | 30% | 82–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 135.1 | 82% | 85–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 146.0 | 70% | 62–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 146.1 | 48% | 85–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 142.4 | 68% | 56–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 151.5 | 68% | 70–102 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 126.8 | 65% | 57–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 138.2 | 58% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 145.1 | 76% | 62–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.1 | 61% | 79–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 142.9 | 81% | 53–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 151.4 | 77% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 152.2 | 62% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.9 | 127.3 | 87% | 60–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 156.3 | 69% | 93–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.7 | 160.4 | 33% | 88–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 139.5 | 75% | 56–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 149.7 | 54% | 56–84 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.