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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–13 on winners spread MAE 8.4 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Carolina @ UCF +4.2 135.9 68% 62–72 ✓
Rice @ UAB +7.7 137.2 78% 60–73 ✓
Georgia @ Missouri +5.3 153.1 71% 70–73 ✓
Bowling Green @ Akron -0.0 153.5 47% 67–74 ✗
Seattle U @ California Baptist +0.4 144.9 51% 83–66 ✗
Niagara @ Marist -0.2 128.6 45% 67–62 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +14.0 148.0 88% 60–66 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +13.8 130.3 87% 51–58 ✓
Utah @ USC +6.4 139.0 72% 85–91 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -2.5 141.8 32% 81–73 ✓
DePaul @ UConn +9.2 139.2 80% 60–94 ✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin +2.4 137.6 58% 74–75 ✓
Lamar @ Sam Houston +8.5 137.4 77% 70–69 ✗
UNLV @ Utah State +9.0 134.6 80% 53–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State +6.1 138.7 73% 58–87 ✓
Texas Tech @ Texas -1.1 135.7 48% 66–67 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech +6.4 133.9 74% 69–75 ✓
Southern @ Grambling -1.7 139.9 43% 67–72 ✗
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +6.9 137.9 76% 59–76 ✓
North Texas @ Old Dominion -4.2 129.2 34% 61–55 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ New Mexico State +6.1 129.7 78% 61–77 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +7.3 141.2 78% 80–75 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +5.8 137.4 71% 52–62 ✓
California @ Colorado +13.0 129.4 87% 58–61 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +9.2 133.7 83% 62–72 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan +6.1 130.3 66% 66–79 ✓
Mississippi State @ Alabama +7.2 138.9 79% 48–85 ✓
South Florida @ Wichita State +9.6 138.3 82% 67–68 ✓
UAB @ Western Kentucky -1.0 134.2 49% 60–64 ✗
Ohio State @ Purdue -0.7 138.4 48% 87–78 ✓
Florida @ Tennessee +2.2 130.9 62% 66–78 ✓
Cincinnati @ SMU +5.6 144.7 65% 74–71 ✗
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech +0.5 130.6 56% 54–48 ✗
Texas Southern @ Jackson State -1.5 133.9 43% 84–81 ✓
Ohio @ Toledo +2.2 156.9 62% 87–80 ✗
Iona @ Niagara -4.7 134.3 30% 70–64 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +1.7 139.6 55% 66–58 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -3.8 154.0 34% 82–61 ✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +8.1 152.5 80% 76–88 ✓
Rutgers @ Illinois +7.8 139.3 73% 68–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +9.3 152.1 76% 83–74 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Virginia +1.7 121.3 52% 1–0 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.