← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–13 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
49 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-11.7 | 150.8 | 19% | 69–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 146.8 | 71% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 138.0 | 52% | 47–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.3 | 131.6 | 84% | 58–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 135.4 | 58% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 148.4 | 64% | 76–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.0 | 140.5 | 82% | 62–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 144.8 | 85% | 84–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 144.5 | 72% | 52–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 131.5 | 30% | 75–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 134.2 | 66% | 58–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.9 | 126.8 | 12% | 65–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 144.2 | 54% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 145.1 | 44% | 67–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 141.5 | 24% | 80–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-19.4 | 161.2 | 12% | 105–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 146.3 | 33% | 68–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.0 | 150.4 | 30% | 84–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 139.6 | 80% | 51–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 161.9 | 88% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 152.3 | 83% | 94–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 146.1 | 68% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.0 | 140.5 | 39% | 76–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 142.3 | 59% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 133.7 | 29% | 83–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 149.7 | 17% | 79–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 146.0 | 69% | 71–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 137.9 | 65% | 65–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.3 | 148.4 | 49% | 83–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.7 | 134.3 | 52% | 69–50 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.9 | 141.3 | 88% | 55–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 149.8 | 82% | 54–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 145.2 | 89% | 69–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 144.0 | 76% | 44–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 139.1 | 51% | 70–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 135.6 | 77% | 52–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 143.1 | 42% | 63–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.8 | 149.7 | 35% | 79–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 148.7 | 83% | 55–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 157.0 | 84% | 77–100 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 130.1 | 41% | 80–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.6 | 132.1 | 89% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 140.2 | 81% | 64–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 127.5 | 47% | 68–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.6 | 140.2 | 61% | 65–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.5 | 149.8 | 85% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.3 | 145.4 | 90% | 54–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 147.4 | 35% | 77–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.6 | 145.6 | 63% | 66–53 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.