Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–14 on winners spread MAE 9.4 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Colorado State @ Fresno State -10.6 153.1 17% 69–64 ✓
Florida State @ Stanford +3.4 150.4 62% 71–78 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh -0.0 139.1 50% 47–86 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Lamar +13.4 133.9 89% 58–61 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +1.3 134.3 55% 52–74 ✓
Charleston @ Elon +5.3 150.3 68% 76–62 ✗
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +9.2 138.3 80% 62–83 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Alabama +14.3 138.3 90% 84–88 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +7.5 143.0 75% 52–73 ✓
Merrimack @ Fairfield -6.1 132.6 29% 75–54 ✓
Wyoming @ San José State +3.3 136.4 62% 58–67 ✓
Grambling @ Mississippi Valley State -17.7 132.1 5% 65–54 ✓
UConn @ Xavier +0.3 149.6 51% 72–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana -1.3 150.1 45% 67–59 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Washington State -6.5 144.6 28% 80–75 ✓
Gonzaga @ Portland -25.9 166.1 1% 105–62 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Kansas City -3.2 146.7 38% 68–65 ✓
Omaha @ Oral Roberts -5.5 155.5 31% 84–76 ✓
Tennessee @ Auburn +7.8 142.7 76% 51–53 ✓
LSU @ Alabama +15.9 169.3 93% 73–80 ✓
Miami @ California +9.4 161.5 80% 94–98 ✓
Oklahoma @ Arkansas +4.4 149.7 66% 65–62 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -1.3 146.2 45% 76–60 ✓
Montana State @ Montana -0.5 145.6 48% 70–77 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton -7.3 133.6 25% 83–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech -10.2 149.6 18% 79–66 ✓
Kennesaw State @ UTEP +5.0 149.4 68% 71–73 ✓
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State +2.6 138.3 59% 65–59 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.4 147.5 51% 83–79 ✗
San Diego State @ Nevada +0.7 131.3 52% 69–50 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Irvine +15.0 138.0 91% 55–71 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego +11.0 152.0 84% 54–79 ✓
San Diego @ San Francisco +19.8 143.8 96% 69–81 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +8.3 148.6 78% 44–60 ✓
Utah Valley @ Seattle U +2.3 138.4 58% 70–66 ✗
Cincinnati @ BYU +3.7 136.7 63% 52–80 ✓
Duquesne @ Fordham -2.6 144.6 41% 63–65 ✗
Maryland @ Indiana -6.3 150.5 28% 79–78 ✓
Nebraska @ Wisconsin +8.6 150.5 78% 55–83 ✓
UAB @ Memphis +12.8 163.7 88% 77–100 ✓
Long Island University @ Mercyhurst -2.5 128.7 41% 80–85 ✗
Chicago State @ Central Connecticut +17.3 124.8 94% 64–81 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas +10.7 142.9 83% 64–77 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis +6.2 125.6 71% 68–66 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill +4.9 147.0 67% 65–54 ✗
Northwestern @ Illinois +13.2 149.3 88% 74–83 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +20.6 150.2 97% 54–64 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa -5.7 149.5 30% 77–84 ✗
Navy @ Army +3.8 152.0 64% 66–53 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.