We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–16 on winners spread MAE 10.0 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Xavier @ UConn +12.9 149.5 88% 89–94 ✓
Memphis @ Virginia -4.6 132.4 34% 64–62 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ UNC Wilmington +2.9 139.8 61% 66–79 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Long Island University +1.2 140.5 54% 80–72 ✗
Murray State @ Indiana State -2.9 157.5 40% 74–84 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ South Florida +8.3 142.8 77% 77–69 ✗
Manhattan @ Wagner +0.8 121.2 53% 80–66 ✗
Davidson @ Temple +2.7 153.2 60% 61–62 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairfield -5.2 134.8 32% 64–63 ✓
Austin Peay @ Ohio +7.0 138.4 74% 58–78 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Vermont -1.0 127.4 46% 67–75 ✗
Elon @ East Tennessee State -0.1 138.6 49% 58–84 ✗
Longwood @ Campbell +4.0 138.0 64% 77–55 ✗
Richmond @ William & Mary +6.7 159.4 73% 87–93 ✓
Northeastern @ Massachusetts -2.1 152.0 42% 72–77 ✗
Lafayette @ George Washington +8.9 141.2 79% 62–82 ✓
Youngstown State @ Wright State +10.3 143.6 83% 80–70 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +8.5 133.8 78% 60–73 ✓
Mercer @ Queens University +2.6 160.6 59% 66–73 ✓
American University @ Saint Joseph's +11.6 141.7 85% 57–84 ✓
Alabama A&M @ UAB +20.3 163.2 97% 67–96 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Rio Grande Valley +6.5 161.2 72% 73–78 ✓
UMBC @ Georgia Tech +12.3 156.0 87% 82–91 ✓
Toledo @ Houston +29.3 147.2 100% 49–78 ✓
The Citadel @ Vanderbilt +27.1 148.1 99% 53–105 ✓
Evansville @ UT Arlington +11.1 154.4 84% 54–80 ✓
San Francisco @ Bradley +0.7 143.5 53% 64–66 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Texas +34.9 119.5 100% 42–83 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Illinois State +18.9 146.9 96% 60–81 ✓
Wofford @ Saint Louis +1.9 147.9 57% 74–71 ✗
Tarleton State @ Oklahoma State +21.6 137.9 98% 61–66 ✓
App State @ Louisiana -5.4 134.9 31% 62–68 ✗
Canisius @ Loyola Chicago +22.6 145.9 98% 60–72 ✓
Alabama @ North Dakota -23.9 167.1 1% 97–90 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +13.9 147.2 90% 70–80 ✓
Nicholls @ Gonzaga +36.5 151.6 100% 72–102 ✓
Michigan @ Oklahoma -3.7 151.8 37% 86–87 ✗
Samford @ Arizona +12.9 173.1 88% 64–96 ✓
Utah Valley @ Idaho State +4.9 138.1 67% 70–56 ✗
Idaho @ UC Davis +9.7 147.3 81% 66–74 ✓
VCU @ New Mexico +0.6 151.2 52% 71–78 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount -4.1 134.4 36% 58–60 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Portland -4.8 148.1 33% 81–64 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ USC +3.5 149.3 63% 69–90 ✓
Montana State @ UC Riverside +1.1 145.6 54% 80–83 ✓
Portland State @ Pacific +5.5 149.1 69% 81–75 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Santa Clara +11.1 153.7 84% 74–94 ✓
Washington State @ Washington -2.3 145.4 42% 73–89 ✗
Alabama State @ Norfolk State +4.0 156.9 64% 54–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.