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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–7 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo
@
Georgia
|
+25.5 | 145.2 | 99% | 49–100 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Cleveland State
|
+0.7 | 118.7 | 53% | 75–92 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
North Alabama
|
+13.3 | 148.4 | 89% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Delaware State
|
-6.1 | 143.0 | 29% | 60–73 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
Belmont
|
-6.1 | 154.3 | 29% | 92–84 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+0.1 | 143.2 | 50% | 65–67 | ✓ |
UT Martin
@
Morehead State
|
+1.9 | 144.4 | 57% | 69–70 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Texas
|
+29.2 | 149.7 | 100% | 62–98 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Little Rock
|
+1.0 | 127.6 | 54% | 56–60 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Wyoming
|
+12.2 | 146.7 | 87% | 55–92 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Southern Indiana
|
+12.3 | 157.3 | 87% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Lindenwood
|
+2.5 | 143.2 | 59% | 79–73 | ✗ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+8.0 | 141.0 | 77% | 72–79 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
Utah Tech
|
-2.5 | 165.8 | 41% | 87–92 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+25.3 | 150.1 | 99% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
Pepperdine
|
+9.1 | 138.1 | 80% | 79–76 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Saint Mary's
|
+16.4 | 125.4 | 93% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Western Michigan
|
+2.1 | 153.7 | 58% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Houston Christian
@
Texas A&M
|
+26.5 | 135.8 | 99% | 45–77 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Grambling
|
-5.6 | 136.7 | 31% | 76–70 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Seattle U
|
+10.6 | 156.3 | 83% | 79–68 | ✗ |
Rider
@
Pennsylvania
|
+0.6 | 127.4 | 52% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Alabama State
|
+5.8 | 157.7 | 70% | 83–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.