Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–11 on winners spread MAE 8.0 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
BYU @ UConn +0.6 143.0 56% 84–86 ✓
Jackson State @ Louisiana Tech +8.5 139.5 81% 51–68 ✓
Oklahoma @ Nebraska +1.3 141.4 59% 99–105 ✓
Nevada @ Santa Clara +14.6 144.2 86% 83–98 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Wilmington +3.1 141.6 59% 60–73 ✓
Little Rock @ Ball State +12.4 139.6 87% 68–62 ✗
James Madison @ Long Island University +7.4 146.9 78% 79–88 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Dayton +15.8 147.8 87% 82–91 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Elon +12.3 154.1 86% 84–95 ✓
Southern Utah @ Omaha +12.7 145.4 86% 85–90 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Saint Louis +13.8 155.8 85% 64–78 ✓
Duquesne @ Villanova +13.8 151.6 84% 77–87 ✓
Belmont @ Oral Roberts +2.8 151.6 58% 83–60 ✗
Green Bay @ Minnesota +21.9 138.3 90% 65–72 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Pepperdine — — — 88–81 —
Portland @ Wyoming +11.6 144.8 81% 56–93 ✓
New Mexico @ New Mexico State — — — 68–76 —
Sam Houston @ Utah +7.8 155.8 80% 79–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Manhattan +10.1 149.9 85% 73–80 ✓
Utah Valley @ Fresno State +7.9 151.7 76% 74–75 ✓
Weber State @ UC Irvine +0.1 141.2 49% 70–79 ✓
Bradley @ San Francisco +4.6 135.1 69% 64–75 ✓
Idaho State @ Seattle U +7.4 139.0 70% 74–83 ✓
Utah Tech @ Hawai'i +18.5 143.6 88% 62–68 ✓
App State @ Dartmouth +0.1 133.1 47% 85–77 ✗
Wagner @ UMBC +11.3 143.1 83% 70–71 ✓
Wright State @ Kent State -3.1 152.9 45% 72–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Ohio State +4.0 148.7 60% 63–64 ✓
Stetson @ Western Carolina +5.3 145.1 73% 65–76 ✓
Bryant @ Valparaiso +4.6 141.3 68% 50–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Hampton +5.9 140.6 75% 67–61 ✗
South Florida @ Kennesaw State +4.2 159.1 65% 108–89 ✗
Samford @ Central Arkansas -2.0 147.2 40% 84–77 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Maine +8.5 127.6 81% 70–64 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Fairfield +9.8 134.1 81% 82–85 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Wake Forest +20.7 147.6 91% 75–109 ✓
Charlotte @ Virginia Tech +14.4 147.0 86% 76–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Oklahoma State +17.5 137.3 89% 69–85 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts +8.0 133.0 77% 77–84 ✓
Western Michigan @ South Dakota +1.9 150.5 53% 78–83 ✓
Radford @ Cleveland State -1.1 154.8 47% 82–87 ✗
Houston @ Auburn +1.7 135.2 61% 73–72 ✗
Tennessee State @ Western Kentucky +12.1 151.8 85% 82–95 ✓
Presbyterian @ Sacramento State +6.7 137.6 74% 62–64 ✓
Lindenwood @ Alabama A&M +5.2 141.3 70% 65–74 ✓
Colorado State @ Loyola Chicago -7.1 156.9 21% 80–67 ✓
Harvard @ Marist +12.4 133.2 86% 56–54 ✗
UNLV @ Memphis +7.4 154.2 77% 92–78 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Indiana +25.3 153.1 91% 61–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Cincinnati +15.5 136.3 88% 55–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.