Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | VT -5000 CLT +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | VT -19.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -13.3 (-5.3) | 143.8 (+16.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -14.4 (-6.4) | 147.0 (+13.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -15.5 (-7.5) | 147.7 (+12.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -14.4 (-6.4) | 147.5 (+12.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#34) | -0.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#47) | 0.94 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#56) | 2.42 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#39) | 0.562 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.32 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 10.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 43.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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