Betting Lines
| Spread | UVU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +165 UVU -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -11.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -7.9 (-6.9) | 151.7 (-2.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -9.1 (-8.1) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -9.2 (-8.2) | 146.5 (+2.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#206) | -5.2 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#297) | -0.41 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#262) | -0.51 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#307) | 0.562 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 21.1% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 62.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 12.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 45.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.