Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +160 CSU -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +13 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -10.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -12.3 (-0.7) | 157.1 (-10.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -7.1 (-5.9) | 156.9 (-9.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -9.5 (-3.5) | 156.8 (-9.8) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -10.5 (-2.5) | 151.8 (-4.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#296) | 10.7 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#329) | 1.52 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.04 (#327) | 2.23 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#317) | 0.536 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 54.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 66.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 46.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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