Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -290 WAG +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +1 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -15.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -10.6 (-9.6) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UMBC -9.5 (-8.5) | 142.4 (-1.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UMBC -11.3 (-10.3) | 143.1 (-2.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -11.8 (-10.8) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#91) | -1.8 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#143) | -1.88 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#146) | -2.90 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#228) | 0.362 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 45.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.