Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU -150 LIN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -8.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -2.9 (+6.1) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -5.2 (+3.8) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -5.4 (+3.6) | 142.1 (-3.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -4.9 (+4.1) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#332) | -10.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#164) | 0.35 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#173) | 0.42 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#92) | 0.537 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | LIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.7% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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