Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SF -550 BRAD +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SF -8.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -5.1 (+5.9) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -4.6 (+6.4) | 135.1 (+3.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -5.4 (+5.6) | 135.4 (+3.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -3.8 (+7.2) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | BRAD 66 – 64 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | 2.3 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#203) | -0.33 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#206) | 0.07 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.312 (#338) | 0.619 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 62.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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