Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LIU -165 JMU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -12.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -5.3 (+3.7) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -7.4 (+1.6) | 146.9 (+20.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -9.1 (-0.1) | 148.3 (+18.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -7.5 (+1.5) | 149.2 (+17.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | JMU 115 – 79 LIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#164) | -3.7 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#50) | -0.78 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#65) | -1.16 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#95) | 0.447 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | JMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 51.2% |
Game Analysis
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