Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -7500 BCU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -15.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -14.9 (-5.9) | 150.4 (+22.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -15.8 (-6.8) | 147.8 (+25.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -18.6 (-9.6) | 147.1 (+25.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -19.7 (-10.7) | 148.8 (+24.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#75) | -1.3 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#96) | -0.56 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#97) | -0.79 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.692 (#29) | 0.562 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 20.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 40.9% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.5% | 11.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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